Anushruti Singh
In a jaw-dropping revelation, a recent report spilled the beans: by 2030, governments globally are gearing up to crank out a whopping 110 per cent more fossil fuels than what’s needed to keep the planet from overheating at 1.5 degrees Celsius. This is happening despite a chorus of 151 national governments singing their net-zero emissions anthems and forecasts predicting a peak in global coal, oil, and gas demand – even without new policies.
The report headlined “Phasing down or phasing up?,” the latest Production Gap Report 2023 by UNEP doesn’t pull any punches. It warns of an expanding chasm between our climate aspirations and the harsh reality of fossil fuel overindulgence. The call to action is clear: aim for a near-total phase-out of coal production by 2040 and slash oil and gas production by a whopping 75 per cent by 2050. That’s the minimum requirement to keep us on track.
While 17 out of 20 countries have sworn on the net-zero bible, none are putting their money where their mouth is when it comes to scaling back coal, oil, and gas. The report throws shade at their lack of commitment and calls on the big players to take the lead in transitioning away from fossil fuels, helping the less fortunate in the process.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres recently declared, “Governments are literally doubling down on fossil fuel production; that spells double trouble for people and the planet.” His call to arms is crystal clear – COP28 needs to be the stage where we commit to turbocharging renewables, saying goodbye to fossil fuels, and cranking up energy efficiency. A just, equitable transition is the need of the hour.
Now just look at the hard facts. Global carbon dioxide emissions, almost 90 per cent of which come from fossil fuels, rose to record highs in 2021-2022. While July 2023 gave us the hottest month in history – a scorching reminder that climate change isn’t a distant threat but an alarming reality. Heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, storms –Earth is witnessing an array of climate calamities, all fuelled by the relentless burning of fossil fuels.
Inger Andersen, the Executive Director of UNEP, is pointing fingers at governments’ plans to expand fossil fuel production, undermining the very transition we need for net-zero emissions. Her pleas to these governments are emphatic– power economies with clean energy, end energy poverty, and cut emissions. It’s not a choice; it’s a necessity.
India is among the 17
Now, let’s zoom in on India, the rising star in the fossil fuel saga (despite having initiatives on greener fuels).
India’s dance with the devil involves a significant spike in coal production by 2030.
Why? Due to its quest for self-reliance, with the coal industry donning the role of a financial and employment lifeline. India’s climate ambitions, though, sparkle on paper – a 45 per cent reduction in emissions intensity, a 50 per cent non-fossil power capacity by 2030, and a net-zero goal by 2070. Ambitious right!
The government’s vision, unveiled during COP27, is a low-carbon transition that won’t sacrifice development, energy security, or employment. It’s a tricky balancing act, where the Ministry of Home Affairs sees coal production as a ticket to self-reliance, urging mining companies to crank up production.
However, amidst its lofty plans for green energy and the budgets earmarked for it, the Indian Government continues to cling to fossil fuels, especially coal, to fuel its surging energy demands. The Ministry of Coal’s grand auction of coal-mining blocks and the push for oil and gas exploration is a commitment to fossil fuels, even as clean energy beckons.
The question lingers – can India reconcile its fossil fuel fascination with a cleaner, greener future?
Let’s see the numbers
March 2022 saw grand plans from the Ministry of Coal – a push to hit 1 billion tonnes of coal production by fiscal year 2023–2024, with state-owned Coal India Limited leading the charge.
The government is dreaming of becoming a net thermal coal exporter by 2024–2025, even as India currently leans on imports for one-fifth of its coal needs. The push for domestic oil and gas production is on the cards, yet official projections remain elusive.
Recently (13 Nov 2023), the coal ministry announced that it has some big production expansion plans, targeting 1,404 million tonnes (MT) by 2027 and 1,577 MT by 2030, building on the current annual production of approximately one billion tonnes. The current production stands at approximately one billion tonnes annually. In the ongoing year, domestic coal-based power plants have received around 821 MT of coal.
Anticipating the demand for additional coal to support the installation of 80 gigawatts (GW) of new thermal capacity by 2030, the ministry acknowledges its necessity. At an 85 per cent plant load factor (PLF), the estimated coal requirement for the expanded thermal capacity is around 400 MT. However, the actual quantity needed may vary, considering future generations’ needs and contributions from renewable sources.
The ministry also wants to become a net thermal coal exporter by 2024–2025. Currently, India meets about one-fifth of its coal demand with imports, exposing the country to price volatility on the international market and loss of foreign exchange reserves.
More power to coal stakeholders
The plot thickens due to the government’s support for fossil fuels.
Subsidies and tax breaks worth Rs 5.7 billion in 2021, electronic auctions, streamlined clearances for coal mines – India is rolling out the red carpet for its fossil fuel stars. Even international ventures haven’t been left out, with ONGC Videsh Ltd eyeing investments in oil and gas projects across the globe.
The catch? While India flaunts its strides in renewable energy, the concept of a managed wind-down of fossil fuel production is yet to find a spot in the script. However, whispers of a just transition are gaining momentum, with Jharkhand leading the charge in creating a roadmap away from coal dependency.
Amid the global push for climate action, India holds a crucial position. As the focus turns to COP28, anticipation is building up. Will nations come together for an organised departure from coal, oil, and gas, or will the fossil fuel narrative persist?
In this ongoing narrative, the stakes are significant, and the world is observing as India confronts its reliance on fossil fuels, standing at the juncture of tradition and transformation. As nations gather for discussions and climate summits, the role of fossil fuels in our energy future remains a crucial topic, and India’s decisions will undoubtedly play a significant role in shaping the way forward.
