Will India become the 3rd largest economy by 2030?

Investments in manufacturing, the energy transition, and the country’s advanced digital infrastructure can make India the 3rd largest economy by 2030, said Morgan Stanley in a report.

   
India 3rd largest economy

India has the conditions in place for an economic boom fuelled by investments in manufacturing, the energy transition, and the country’s advanced digital infrastructure. 

These drivers will make it the world’s third-largest economy and stock market before the end of this decade ending 2030, said global investment bank Morgan Stanley in a report. 

“As a consequence, India is gaining power in the world economy, and in our opinion, these idiosyncratic changes imply a once-in-a-generation shift and an opportunity for investors and companies,” it said. 

The four global trends, that are favourable in building New India, are demographics, digitalization, decarbonization and deglobalization. It said India would drive a fifth of global growth through the end of this decade. 

How will growth affect consumption?

The number of households earning in excess of US$ 35,000 per year is likely to rise fivefold in the coming decade, to over 25 million. 

Also Read: Inflation may fall below 6 per cent by Dec 2022: PHDCCI

The implications of the rising household earnings are GDP likely to more than double to US$ 7.5 trillion by 2031, a discretionary consumption boom, and an 11 per cent annual compounding of market capitalization to US$ 10 trillion in the coming decade. 

Offshoring: 

‘Work from India’ The number of global in-house captive centres that opened in India over the last two years was almost double that of the prior four years. 

During the two pandemic years, the number of people employed in this industry in India rose from 4.3 million to 5.1 million, and the country’s share of global services trade rose 60 basis points to 4.3 per cent, it said. 

In the coming decade, the number of people employed in India for jobs outside the country is likely to at least double to over 11 million, and the report estimates global spending on outsourcing could rise from USD 180 billion per year to around USD 500 billion by 2030. 

This, the report said, will have significant effects on both commercial and residential real estate demand. 

Aadhaar system and its multiplier effects Talking about the success of India’s Aadhaar system, the report said it is the foundational ID for all Indians, designed to process high volumes at low cost with small-value transactions. 

“After a hesitant start and several challenges, including legal ones, Aadhaar and IndiaStack have become ubiquitous. With 1.3 billion people carrying a digital ID, financial transactions have become easy and cheap. Aadhaar has enabled the direct payment of social benefits with efficiency and no leakage.” 

Also Read: India slashes windfall tax on crude oil, hikes for aviation fuel, diesel

India’s global export market share is expected to more than double at 4.5 per cent by 2031, providing an incremental USD 1.2 trillion export opportunity. India’s services exports will almost treble to USD 527 billion (from USD 178 billion in 2021) over the next decade. 

 Key points from the Morgan Stanley report: 

  • E-commerce penetration to nearly double from 6.5 per cent to 12.3 per cent by 2031. 
  • Internet users in India to increase from 650 million to 960 million while online shoppers will grow from 250 million to 700 million over the next 10 years. 
  • Around 25 per cent of incremental global car sales over 2021-2030 will be from India and expect 30 per cent of 2030 passenger vehicle sales to be electric-run. 

India should hit a “major inflection point” for the next residential property boom in 2030 – a confluence of high per-capita income, a mid-30s median age, and higher urbanization. India’s workforce in the technology services sector to more than double from 5.1 million in 2021 to 12.2 million in 2031. 

Over US$ 700 billion in energy investments are expected over the next decade as India accelerates its energy transition.

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