NASSCOM predicts flat export growth, halves hiring projection to 1 lakh

For the second consecutive year, software industry lobby NASSCOM has projected a flat export growth in 2018-19 at 7 to 9 per cent – marginally higher than 7.8 per cent that the industry is likely to close 2017-18 with – and has nearly halved its hiring projection to about 1 lakh.
NASSCOM president R Chandrashekhar on Tuesday said that software exports are expected to touch USD 167 billion this fiscal year, accounting for 24 per cent of the country’s exports.
“Fiscal 2018 began on a muted note but driven by a better growth in the second half, it is expected to clock revenue of USD 167 billion, representing a growth of 7.8 per cent for export revenue and 10 per cent in domestic revenue.
“In terms of export revenue, we expect a growth rate of 7 to 9 per cent in FY19. As I said earlier, we expect the change to be in positive. This is the probable band in which it will happen. We also expect a slight upswing in domestic revenue at 10 to 12 per cent in FY19,” Chandrashekhar said at the annual NASSCOM leadership forum.
He said that the industry may close the current fiscal year with a lower than projected 7.8 per cent growth and may touch USD 167 billion in revenue size during the year in terms of exports and 10 per cent in domestic revenue.
For the outgoing year, domestic revenue is seen closing with a 10.1 per cent growth at USD 26 billion, which is increasingly driven by enterprise digital adoption which is at different level of maturity and scope, he added.
For FY19, domestic revenue is expected to be USD 28 to 29 billion, while export revenue is seen at USD 137 billion as against USD 126 billion in FY18, Chandrashekhar explained.
Although the trends are positive, the industry body sees the broader economic upswing in the global economy and the American economy with little bit “lag”. However, during the later part of FY19 that would “kick in”.
On the hiring side, the NASSCOM chief said that the industry-wide hiring may be much lower at around 1 lakh in FY19. For the current fiscal, the association had pegged hiring 1.3 to 1.5 lakh. However, he was quick to add that FY18 may close finally with a net hiring of 30,000 to 50,000 lesser at 1,00,000.
“We see hiring patterns while industry continues to be a major hirer, this year also despite all the headwinds we have seen nearly a 1,00,000 plus jobs getting added.
“While it may not at the levels at which it was in the hay-day earlier in terms of employment, we expect that those trends would continue going forward as well,” he said indicating that FY19 hiring would be about 1,00,000.
On the sidelines of the special edition of the NASSCOM India Leadership Forum, in conjunction with the World Congress on Information Technology, the industry body announced key trends of the industry performance for FY18.
NASSCOM chairman Raman Roy said that it is a great milestone for the industry to cross USD 150 billion milestone, which is trebling its size under a decade.